Strategic Analysis in Action: Securing the Future of Aviation with AAFAS

My Field Experience: A Case in Point for Structure Analysis

“Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers: An Experiment in Applying Structured Methods,” authored by Master Sergeant Robert D. Folker Jr. 

For this study, I was trained to use Folker’s approach to structured analysis combined with the CARVER target analysis framework taught by Luke Bencie.

Drawing parallels to my own fieldwork, the value of a structured approach becomes even more apparent. On numerous occasions, the application of structured analytical frameworks allowed for a more organized and evidence-based assessment of complex situations, ultimately leading to more reliable and actionable intelligence. This mirrors Folker’s findings and underscores the importance of a methodical approach in intelligence analysis. 

In the complex realm of aerospace and aviation security, the use of structured analytical methods is not merely beneficial; it’s indispensable. This is particularly evident in the multi-agency efforts to develop and implement the Automated Airborne Flight Alert System (AAFAS) — a pioneering proof of concept with profound implications for the security and safety of the National Air Space (NAS). My involvement in this project further emphasizes the efficacy of structured analysis when managing and mitigating risks in sophisticated and interconnected systems.

Tailored Analysis for AAFAS: Addressing Multifaceted Risks

The AAFAS initiative, backed by a consortium of major stakeholders including several federal agencies, military, defense contractors, researchers, and policy advisors, represented a significant advancement in aviation safety and security. However, with innovation came new vulnerabilities and threat vectors, particularly given the system’s reliance on complex communications networks spanning communications towers, VHF, SatCom, and spectrum allocation.

In this context, our analytical team employed structured methodologies to dissect and understand the multifarious risks associated with AAFAS. By carefully mapping out the system’s architecture and its integration into the NAS, we were able to identify potential points of failure and vulnerability — from cyber threats to physical security breaches.

Structured Methodologies in Practice: A Comprehensive Assessment

Our approach was methodical and multilayered. We began with thorough risk identification, where every component of the AAFAS was scrutinized for potential vulnerabilities, from its hardware and software to the human elements involved in its operation. This exhaustive inventory of risks served as the foundation for our subsequent analysis.

Employing hypothesis testing and alternative analysis, we then evaluated each identified risk against a spectrum of threat scenarios, ranging from the most likely to the highly speculative. This enabled us to weigh risks based on probability and potential impact on the NAS.

Furthermore, we leveraged red teaming exercises in adversary action simulations to gain insight into the system’s resilience and to identify areas for reinforcement, which proved instrumental in uncovering latent vulnerabilities that could be exploited to compromise the AAFAS and, by extension, the NAS.

Collaboration and Communication: The Keystone of Multi-Agency Efforts

The collaborative nature of the AAFAS project called for clear and effective communication of our findings. Once again, the structured methodology approach proved invaluable in helping the project’s stakeholders to make informed decisions and in ensuring the integration of security considerations into every phase of development and deployment.

Conclusion: Structured Analysis as a Pillar of National Security

The application of structured analysis in assessing risks and threats to the AAFAS illustrates its critical role in safeguarding national security interests, particularly in domains as vital and vulnerable as aviation. Structured analysis enables a level of precision and foresight that is essential in preempting and mitigating potential threats. This project not only showcased its effectiveness but set precedent for future endeavors aimed at enhancing the security and safety of the National Air Space and beyond.